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EVENTS

Ukraine Reality Check

Policy Review Exercise

Mikhail Minakov, President of Foundation for Good Politics will be a moderator of the panel "INTERNAL POLITICAL SITUATION IN UKRAINE – DEVELOPMENT TRENDS"

18 June 2013, Kyiv, Embassy of Lithuania in Ukraine (21 Buslivska Str.)

The informal "Reality Check" process is designed to regularly convene a "Review Group" of analysts, diplomats, policy and decision makers to assess the EU's foreign policy towards the Eastern Neighborhood countries by providing a realistic context analysis and an impartial examination of key issues based on evidence and data. A particular emphasis is placed on the independent character of the group in order to lead to a more evidence-based and balanced type of policy discussion and policy advice.

The first such meeting on Belarus was enacted in Vilnius, Lithuania in October 2012 under the aegis of the upcoming Lithuanian Presidency of the Council of European Union.  The event is held in a closed format in order to encourage honest exchange (i.e. the reality check) and under the Chatham House rules. All participants are expected to share their views.

09.30 – 10.00       Registration & Welcome Coffee

10.00 – 10.15       Opening and Welcome remarks

Petras Vaitiekunas, Ambassador, Embassy of Lithuania in Ukraine

Kristina Vaiciunaite, Director, Eastern Europe Studies Centre

Rolands Kovats, PACT

10.15 – 11.45       INTERNAL POLITICAL SITUATION IN UKRAINE – DEVELOPMENT TRENDS

Moderator: Mikhail Minakov, Kyiv-Mohyla Academy

Key questions: What is the real aim of the centralisation initiated by President V. Yanukovich? Will Ukraine’s oligarchic system be transformed? Ukraine towards Belarusian type political system: mission impossible? Division of Ukraine into East and West: what is the reason behind? What are the main players influencing Ukraine’s political agenda? What is the status quo of Ukrainian political opposition? Are there any new tendencies in the development of Ukrainian society?

Panellists:

Volodymyr Fesenko, Director, Center for Political Studies „Penta“

Konstantin Bondarenko, Director, Institute of Ukrainian Policy (tbc)

Kateryna Botanova, Director, Foundation Centre for Contemporary Art

Oleh Rybachuk, Director, United Actions Centre

Natalia Izosimova, Managing Director, Foundation for Effective Governance

11.45 – 12.00       Coffee Break

12.00 – 13.30       ECONOMIC TRENDS AND ENERGY FACTOR

Moderator: Yevhen Hlibovytskyy, Founder, Expert Company “Pro.mova”

Key questions:  A merge of Ukrainian business and political elites: any new trends? Is energy dependence on Russia a key factor deciding the future of Ukraine? Who is who: which interest groups align them with the West, which with the East? What role energy sector and industry play in Ukraine’s political agenda? What is economic division among different pressure groups in Ukraine? How the EU should deal with the EU oriented interest groups?

Panellists:

Pavlo Sheremeta ,  Kyiv School of Economics (tbc)

Volodymir Saprykin, Energy Programmes Director, Razumkov Centre

Vladimir Dubrovskiy , Centre for Social and Economic Research

Jerome Vacher, Resident Representative International Monetary Fund

Iryna Akimova, Presidential Administration of Ukraine (tbc)

13.30 – 14.30       Lunch at the Embassy

14.30 – 16.00       UKRAINE AND INTERNATIONAL FACTORS

Moderator: Rolands Kovats, PACT   

Key questions: Is Eastern Partnership Vilnius Summit a decisive moment for Ukraine? What are the prospects of signing Association agreement and DCFTA with Ukraine? What interest groups support Ukrainian accession into the EU economic space? Brussels expectations on changes in Ukraine: is Tymoshenko the main conditionality for signing DCFTA? What are Kremlin's strategies towards Ukraine? Incompatibility of DCFTA and membership in Eurasian Union. How attractive for Ukrainian authorities is Eurasian integration under leadership of Russia?

Panellists:

Matt Rojansky, Deputy Director Russia and Eurasia program, Carnegie Endowment

Fabiola di Clemente, EU Delegation to Ukraine

Olga Shumylo-Tapiola, Visiting scholar, Carnegie Endowment, Brussels

Laurynas Kasciunas, Research Director, Eastern Europe Studies Centre

Alyona Getmanchuk, Director, Institute of World Policy

16.00 – 17.00      CLOSING REMARKS: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP VILNIUS SUMMIT

17.30 –   19.30      Reception at the Embassy (with additional invitees).